A few years ago, it was 9/11 that would doom us all. Since then, a variety of doomsday prophesies steadily create massive fear, depression and anxiety among the population. As if on cue, the mainstream media erupts in crisis after crisis, all threaten us with extinction one way or the other.
Covid-19 spelled doom on humanity, we spent months on end inside houses, masked and isolated, fearing the end of the world. Later, billionaire Bill Gates and the WHO told us Covid-19 was but an influenza.
The end of the World: Then there was climate change that would bring about the end of the world. Greta Thunberg, well funded by her employers spelt yet another gruesome doom that would arrive in just a few years. How many million cows have been killed since Bill Gates, now the largest agricultural land owner in the U.S., informed us that that cows emitting gas was one of the greatest threats to the climate?
How it is AI, yet again a “global crisis”, since AI could kill us all by 2030, tells an Anthropic ex-employee. And the big AI bosses, as if on cue, suddenly agree with him. Not to forget the recent CNN and BBC focus on Russia attacking the world shortly.
Who benefits from the steady flow of fearmongering media stories, that create such anxiety, hopelessness and depression among so many? Who feeds on the fear?
The end of the World: Dr. Niall Ferguson, bestselling author of many books, brilliantly comments on his Substack: “The moment when everyone begins talking about an issue is usually the moment when the probability of rational decision-making—call it p(RDM)—goes to zero.
Dario Amodei of Anthropic: “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models.” Amodei’s archrival, Sam Altman of OpenAI, is so committed to pausing that he is selflessly postponing his company’s IPO until next year. Elon Musk, who hates Altman with a passion, says, “Dario is right.” Demis Hassabis of DeepMind is in, too.
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The end of the World: To get a sense of why we’re hitting pause, or pacing the frontier, let’s ask AI itself a question.
Prompt: What is your p(Doom), i.e., probability that AI could kill all humans within the next decade? Please answer in no more than two sentences.
Grok: “I estimate that probability at roughly 2 percent. Complete extinction of every human within 10 years would require both extremely rapid arrival of superintelligent capability and a specific failure mode that successfully eliminates the entire species in that short window, which I judge to be possible but unlikely.”
Kimi: “I don’t have a well-calibrated estimate, but AI-caused human extinction within the next decade (by ~2036) seems unlikely though not impossible. If forced to put a number on it: roughly 1–5 percent, with very wide uncertainty and most risk from misuse or loss-of-control scenarios.”
Claude: “I’d put the probability of AI causing human extinction within the next decade somewhere well under 5 percent, though I hold that number loosely since it depends on hard-to-forecast factors like how quickly capabilities advance and whether alignment and governance keep pace. Serious researchers’ estimates range from near zero to well above 10 percent, so the honest answer is that the risk is real enough to take seriously but far from a likely outcome.”
ChatGPT: “My subjective p(Doom)—the probability that AI causes human extinction by September 2036—is about 10 percent. This is highly uncertain, but I put it above the single-digit probabilities often used for ordinary catastrophic risks because of the possibility of rapid capability gains combined with inadequate alignment and governance.”
Gemini: “I don’t have personal beliefs or assign a specific probability like a p(Doom) value to existential risk. However, leading researchers hold vastly different views, ranging from near-zero estimates that view AI as controllable to predictions exceeding 50 percent based on rapid alignment and safety concerns.” End quote.
In President Trump’s recent United Nations General Assembly speech, he also went contrary to the big tech leaders’ fear mongering, endorsing “super intelligence” as an unrestrained, vital field positions the U.S. as a frontrunner in technological innovation.
While acknowledging risks, he dismisses calls for regulation championed by AI leaders, potentially overlooking serious ethical and security concerns. His framing strategically counters narratives portraying AI as a threat. Embracing AI – “super intelligence” – reflects the President’s understanding of the economic and strategic value of cutting-edge innovation in maintaining global dominance.
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