Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, recently provided an insightful analysis of the shifting dynamics in international relations as a result of the dramatic changes in the United States as conservatives wield power.
The whole world and Europe in particular finds itself thrown into a whole new era that will be defined by strong men with hard power, just like after the Second World War.
New era for international relations: “In Europe, we have emphasized soft power, which is why we are not seated at the table that now determines the developments,” Sir Alex Younger, former head of the British M16, told the BBC.
The utter confusion of European leaders in the face of the American conservative government reflects the fact that we have failed to recognize that the whole dynamic of international relations has now changed. The rest of the world is fully aware of this, writes Hanne Nabintu Herland, historian of religions, bestselling author, and columnist at World Net Daily, USA’s largest conservative news network.
New era for international relations: We now see agreements being made and conversations going on about real spheres of influence. I think the only people who haven’t woken up to this reality are Europeans and their leaders.
There is a way into this conversation, and it is not through soft power or our values, but hard power. Europe needs to shift its gears. Europe must figure out how to develop hard power so that we can have a place in this international conversation.
Previously, we had a system based on unipolarism where the US had the means and will to assert itself all over the world. That created globalization, the international security structure, it dominated the international institutions and dictated their agenda. The US is now a more minor power relative to other countries, and the will to be a total leader has diminished in America.
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New era for international relations: The US is still a prestigious country, but its ability to shape the international regulatory framework and dictate outcomes according to American interests, is no longer present.
Sir Alex Younger provides an intriguing and highly insightful analysis of the new dynamics of international relations. He highlights that it is now the most powerful men from the strongest military states, and the agreements they make, the rules that they dictate with corresponding multilateral institutions that will be implemented.
The weaker countries, such as Europe with its soft power, are thus not given a seat at the table, but are assigned the role of following up on what the strong decide.
As it happened as a result of the Yalta Treaty in 1945, after the Second World War, three strong men (the leaders of the United States, Russia and Great Britain) on behalf of the large countries decided the fate of the small countries. There was little the small and soft could do.
“This is Donald Trump’s mindset,” says Younger, ”it’s definitely Putin’s mindset, and it’s Xi Jinping’s mindset (US, Russia and China). That’s the world we’re moving into, and he doesn’t think we’re going to go back to the one we had before.
For Europeans, the changing international dynamics are a massive wake-up call, especially because we are perceived as too weak to participate at the table. Whatever European leaders may think about this, all the smoke and dust of the shock, the new complexity, one thing is certain: Europe is going to emerge from this dramatically new stage of international relations in a completely different way and with a completely new mindset.
An end to the Ukraine war will be hugely encouraging for Russia, they will feel that they won, and over time they will build up their capabilities. We don’t need to be too worried because Europe is ten times richer than Russia and we have the capacity to build up the necessary forces to resist this. But if we don’t, if we don’t build up to hard power, the current change will be a nightmare scenario for Europe.
We need to show that we are prepared to play a much stronger role and control our own environment, we need to develop hard power, and it should happen quickly. Donald Trump is not wrong about everything, it’s true that Europe has been a free rider where the US has paid for our defense, this needs to be cleaned up.
Sir Younger believes the differences between Trump and Putin are huge. They approach the conflict in Ukraine from very different angles.
“The discussions around peace negotiations are going to be very complicated,” says Younger. “It will be very difficult for Trump to come up with something that doesn’t involve the kind of humiliation the Americans experienced in Afghanistan – a clean withdrawal.
New era for international relations: “For Trump, the war is about ownership of land and territory, but for Putin it’s about Russian security and sovereignty. So there are vastly different perspectives, desires and considerations colliding. The two sides have a fundamentally irreconcilable problem,” he says.
“Trump understands that it must not be perceived as if Putin has won. And it’s a devastating mistake to give up Ukraine’s sovereignty. “Think of the example this sets for Xi Jinping, who sits on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. It goes right to the heart of Xi Jinping’s thinking. Ukraine must remain free, and if this is achieved in the agreements now being formed, it will be fine.
