Herland Report: Ukraine-Russia War: The strategy of imposing economic sanctions in order to hurt Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, may produce an economic fallout that is different from what the leadership in Europe currently expects.
The question is who will the sanctions hurt the most? Who will be the the economic losers from the steadily widened Ukraine-Russia conflict in the short and long run?
Probably not the Americans who do not depend to the same extent on Russian commodities.
With soaring oil, gas and other commodities prices, Russia’s economy is booming with money flowing like water into its reserves. The ruble is stronger than anyone could foresee.
The set-back from Western sanctions may therefore not be as hard as Europe, threatened by its own recession, hopes for.
The situation is not comparable to the end of the Soviet Union, in which the West played its central part. At the fall of the Soviet Union, the oil price was historically low and the Saudis flooded the oil market helping the Americans to dip the Soviets down as the Soviet economy crashed.
The American strategists are, of course, fully aware economic sanctions at this point will not have the same effect on Russia amid the highest energy and commodity prices in years.
The U.S. led unipolar world has for long had Washington strategists who know very well which buttons to push in order to produce wished-for conflicts that America is set to gain economically from.
They know that sanctions on Russian commodities delivered to Europe would result in the prices going through the roof – and Russia gaining massively from that.
Ukraine-Russia War: The vast Asian market demand for the Russian commodities and natural resources is also well-known to the neoconservative American leadership.
They know that as Europe is shutting itself off, the flow of natural resources will increase to the East from Russia at discounted prices, enriching and improving competitiveness for China, India, Pakistan and so on.
The Americans also know that it is Europe that would be massively hurt, much more than the United States, as it has had extensive trade with neighboring Russia.
After long fearing Germany’s and Europe’s steadily closer trade relations with Russia, the Ukraine war has ended the positive tone. One may guess the Pentagon is very pleased about the current developments.
No one threatens American soil, and Europe is the battlefield with massive destruction – once again.
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So, why is Europe so eager to defend American interests and not their own by not questioning some of these sanctions?
It is no secret that the American neoconservatives for long have viewed Europe as frail, divided and feeble. Assistant Secretary of State, neo-con hawk Victoria Nuland, dropping her guard in 2014 and stating “Fuc…. the EU” said it all. Her words are well in line with the neo-con world view of ensuring no rivals to develop.
The U.S. Defense Department long ago (1992) expressed its lack of respect for Europe, stating the need to weaken Europe, Asia or the former Soviet Union in order to make sure that the U.S. maintains the leading role in the unipolar system.
The leaked memo was drafted by another neocon hawk, then undersecretary for policy, Paul Wolfowitz, with the Pentagon aim to “establish and protect a new order” that accounts “sufficiently for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challenging our leadership,” while at the same time maintaining a military dominance capable of “deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role.”
So, in order to perpetuate the U.S. role, the United States “must sufficiently account for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challenging our leadership or seeking to overturn the established political and economic order,” the draft document states.
Again, Europe was to be militarily dominated by the United States, weakened, deterred from aspiring a regional role and without a strong will to protect their legitimate interests.
Ukraine-Russia War: The 46-page Wolfowitz document which outlined the American strategy post Cold War, had been circulating at the highest levels of the Pentagon.
It was expected to be released by then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney the same month and clearly stated that the U.S. aim would be “convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests.”
That job was later very well done, as Europe now totally depends on the United States for its defenses, with decades of remarkably low defense budgets – maybe at the advise of the neocon hardliner, Dick Cheney.
The weakened Europe has trusted Francis Fukiyama’s gospel that Western liberalism represented the “end of history.”
The feeling that the Cold War somehow was the “end of wars as we know it,” made the dreamy Europeans certain that war in Europe is no more.
In the Middle East yes, in Africa yes, but in Europe they could not see any enemy or war in sight – regardless of how far to the East NATO expanded.
Needless to say, the shock of war in Europe is now terrifying the same leaders, unprepared for total war as we are, depending totally on the instructions from our American ally.
Washington’s tactics are evident, yet, some questions still remain unanswered about the American sanctions strategy in order to hurt Russia.
The choice to bar Russia from access to its own dollar reserves in Western banks, denying rich Russians with political connections access to their own accounts has produced a remarkable will to switch to other currencies than the U.S. dollar system.
This has further weakened the dollar as a world reserve currency, as trust in the Western banking institutions have hit an all time low. Was this effect a desired goal to the neocon leaders in Washington, to reduce the trust in the dollar?
Which non-Western elites will invest in Western properties after this, knowing it may be confiscated as soon as the U.S. is in conflict with the political leadership in their country of origin.
As trade has been politicized, billions are lost for Western companies who had invested in Russia, trust in the globalist transnational business model, which has led to the rise of the super-rich elite in the West, is disappearing. So, it is not self-evident that economic sanctions against Russia will produce the desired result for Europe.
First published April 6th, 2022.